BC LNG work gets more likely as Qatar ships under a quarter of pre-war gas

What’s happened.

Qatar is still missing from the world’s supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the gas that is chilled to liquid so it can be shipped. It normally supplies about a fifth of the world total. Reuters columnist Ron Bousso reports that Qatar shipped 1.6 million tons in September. That was its best month since the war with Iran started, but still less than a quarter of what it shipped before the war. October looks far worse, at roughly 0.6 million tons. About a third of September’s cargoes went to Kuwait and never left the Gulf. Last month QatarEnergy extended its force majeure notices — formal warnings to customers that it cannot deliver as promised — so many buyers in Asia and Europe are still going without. Iranian missile strikes destroyed about 17% of Qatar’s export capacity, roughly one ton in six. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects Qatar’s economy to shrink 8.6% in 2026, against the 6.1% growth it expected before the war.

No one has filled the hole. US exports rose about 14% in 2026, to 123 million tons, yet LNG prices in Asia and Europe still hit their highest level since early 2023 in late September — close to three times what they were before the war. Oil has bounced back faster for a simple reason: it is easier to move. Middle East oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are back to about 80% of pre-war levels, at 16 million barrels a day. LNG is harder. The plants cost billions, every step is linked to the next, and one broken link stops the chain. Qatar’s 14 processing trains take raw gas from the offshore North Field, and that gas carries a lot of condensate — a light liquid that must be separated and shipped out, or production has to be cut back. There is little room to store LNG on land or on ships, the world’s fleet of LNG carriers is far smaller than the oil tanker fleet, and owners do not want to send costly vessels into a strait where they could be trapped or hit.

Qatar is in the middle of an expansion that would take it to 142 million tons a year by 2030, about a quarter of the world market. That capacity is worth little while its shipping route stays uncertain. So buyers in Asia and Europe must lean on supply from the Atlantic and Pacific, outside the Gulf. That is the kind of market that gets long-term LNG plants approved instead of shelved.