What’s happened.
The US Climate Prediction Center now puts the odds of El Niño — a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that moves winter storm tracks — at 100 percent through at least the January to March window, with a greater than 90 percent chance the event is “very strong” and a 75 percent chance it becomes the strongest measured since records began in 1950. Ski Magazine’s read of the forecasts is blunt about the timing: the strongest part of this winter is expected to come after the holidays, and skiers who can wait are likely to get better snow. Several Rockies resorts have already seen October snow, but that is not the same as a deep base in December.
For Canada specifically, the outlook is for a below-average winter, with forecasters more confident of below-average snowfall the farther north you go. The softener is that Canada starts from a high base: resorts such as Whistler and Revelstoke are among the snowiest in North America, so a below-average season there can still deliver more total snow than a good season elsewhere, and if cold temperatures rather than moisture end up being the limiting factor, Canadian hills may hold up well. Seasonal forecasts remain uncertain, and this El Niño is strong enough that forecasters say the atmosphere’s response is partly unknown. Related first-snowfall forecasting work is published here.
What it means for your business.
If you market a Canadian ski resort, mountain lodge or ski-town hotel, your December campaign copy is the thing to change this month. Stop building holiday promotions on snow depth you cannot promise and build them on things you control: open terrain, snowmaking coverage, village and wellness experiences, and a rebooking policy that removes the guest's risk. Then move a visible share of paid spend and package offers into the January-to-March window the forecasters favour, and give guests a reason to book those dates now rather than wait and watch the webcams.
Next step: Rewrite your December package copy around guaranteed terrain and flexible rebooking, and shift paid spend to January–March dates before Black Friday campaigns launch.
Explore this opportunity for your businessSources & context.
Reported developments are separated from MKTGSpace’s suggested commercial next steps. Reconfirm current conditions before acting.
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