What’s happened.

ATB Cormark Capital Markets published its Fall 2026 Energy Sector Survey on October 14, based on 91 responses gathered between September 14 and September 28 from 27 exploration and production companies (the producers that drill and operate wells), 22 energy services companies and 42 institutional investors. Among producers, 96% said they expect to increase production over the next year, up from 88% a year earlier, with oil-weighted producers planning growth of about 10% and gas-weighted producers about 5%. More than half, 56%, expect to spend more on exploration and development in 2027. On the supplier side, 81% of service companies expect activity to rise from current levels and 90% expect more customer work in 2027 than in 2026. ATB Cormark puts the overall picture at roughly 5% to 10% growth in Canadian field activity and producer capital spending next year. The full release is available here.

Two numbers matter most for suppliers. First, 71% of service companies report an improved business outlook over the past three months and none report it getting worse, while 57% expect margins — the profit left after costs — to improve over the next six months. Second, for the first time since fall 2022, more service respondents say demand exceeds their capacity than say they have capacity to spare. That is a tightening market, and it arrives alongside a warning that input costs are rising. Investors have shifted too: 41% now rank growth spending as their top preference for how energy companies use their cash, up from 18% in spring 2026, the first time growth has beaten share buybacks and debt repayment since the survey began in 2021.

The growth plans hold even though most respondents expect oil to ease in the near term. Oil averaged about US$98 per barrel during the survey window, and 61% expect prices to fall over the next year. Looking further out, 53% expect West Texas Intermediate crude, the main North American benchmark price, to average above US$75 per barrel over the next three to five years, up from 43% in spring 2026. Natural gas expectations are firmer still in the short run, with 42% expecting higher prices and only 6% expecting a decline. Federal energy policy remains the top-ranked risk in the survey.

What it means for your business.

If you run a drilling, completions, water-handling, equipment or fabrication business in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, your customers are telling a national survey they plan to spend 5% to 10% more in 2027 — and your peers are already turning work away. That means the discount-to-win reflex from the last two years is the wrong play for the winter quoting season. Build your fall proposals around availability, crew certainty and delivery dates rather than price, and move your rate conversations now, because producer budgets for 2027 get set in the next two months and rising input costs will eat any rate you lock in too cheaply.

Next step: Rework your 2027 rate sheet and lead with capacity and delivery dates, not price, before producer budgets close in December.

Explore this opportunity for your business

Sources & context.

Reported developments are separated from MKTGSpace’s suggested commercial next steps. Reconfirm current conditions before acting.

See where you fit.

Tell us what you sell. We will come prepared to discuss where your offer fits, who to reach and the marketing strategy and implementation needed to pursue the opportunity.

Talk to us about this signal