Expect origin questions now: a U.S.-Mexico deal may write the rules Canada follows

What’s happened.

Washington is getting ready for next year’s review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the trade deal that covers all three countries. But as reporting from the U.S. capital notes, almost all of the visible progress in recent weeks has come from the U.S. and Mexican negotiating teams. Canada has not been part of it. The order matters more than it sounds. When two of the three partners agree on terms first, the rules that come out of it are handed to the third partner to accept, not to help write. Those rules cover where a product counts as being made (the rules of origin), how much of it has to come from North America (regional content thresholds) and what paperwork you need to prove it.

If you ship parts, assemblies or finished industrial goods into the U.S., the practical effect lands early. Your customers will start asking where your content comes from well before anything is signed. Buying teams at American and Mexican customers plan around risk, not around how talks turn out. Suppliers who answer content questions clearly and fast tend to stay on the approved list through a renegotiation. Suppliers who go quiet get a second source added beside them.