Loonie Firms Toward 1.39 on Jobs and GDP Surprises — a Quiet Margin Squeeze for U.S.-Billing Exporters

THREAT · Export Alberta · Currency

USD/CAD sits at 1.3889 as of August 14, with the Canadian dollar up roughly 1.1% over the past month. The drivers are domestic strength: Canadian employment rose 75,100 in July against expectations of a modest gain while the U.S. unexpectedly shed jobs, and Q2 GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace — well above the Bank of Canada’s 2.5% forecast. Together they have narrowed rate differentials and pulled the loonie higher.

A one-cent move sounds small, but for an exporter billing in U.S. dollars it comes straight out of gross margin — and it compounds the tariff math many Alberta firms are already running ahead of August 19.

What it means: If your U.S. contracts are priced in USD and unhedged, this month’s move has already cost you about a point of margin. Revisit hedging coverage and build currency assumptions into any new-market pricing you quote this fall.