Ottawa rejects latest U.S. offer as economists warn tariff spate weakens Canada’s CUSMA hand

THREAT · Export Alberta · Trade policy

Canada-U.S. trade talks remain stuck. Capital Economics’ North America economist Bradley Saunders warns that the incoming Section 338 duties risk “reigniting a tit-for-tat trade war, hurting business confidence and slowing growth,” and that if a deal does come together quickly, “Ottawa would likely give up much of its already-limited leverage in the process,” per BNN Bloomberg. Reporting from CBC News indicates Canada is unsatisfied with the latest U.S. offer, with provincial divisions over relief priorities further complicating the federal position.

What it means: Plan as though tariff uncertainty is a structural condition, not a temporary one. Businesses that build U.S.-market contingencies — alternative markets, revised pricing, CUSMA-independent positioning — into their 2027 planning now will be better placed than those waiting for a clean resolution.