Macklem: New US Tariffs Could Halve Q4 Growth as Exporters Pivot Abroad

THREAT · Export Alberta · Macro & Trade

Speaking in Halifax on September 21, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that the latest round of US tariffs — which touch roughly 5% of Canada’s goods exports to the United States — could cut fourth-quarter growth roughly in half, to below 1%, if they remain in place. The full remarks are in the Bank’s speech, Navigating uncertainty and adapting to change, with additional coverage from BNN Bloomberg.

The same speech carried the counterweight: Canadian exporters are adapting faster than many expected. Non-energy exports rose 14.5% in the second quarter to their highest level since early 2025, and more than two-thirds of Canadian exporters say they plan to expand into new markets over the next two years, with many looking beyond the United States to Europe and the Asia-Pacific. The Bank held its policy rate and said it stands ready to adjust as the growth picture develops.

What it means: If you sell into the US, the governor of the central bank just told you the drag is real and likely to deepen this quarter — and that most of your peers are already moving on new markets. Businesses that treat diversification as a structured project this fall, rather than a someday item, will be entering new channels while competitors are still absorbing the hit.