THREAT · Builders & Developers · Housing market
Canada’s resale housing market ended August in its softest shape in a generation. National home sales fell 6.9% to their weakest August since 2012, and with inventory staying stubbornly high, the sales-to-listings demand balance dropped to a 29-year low, according to this week’s national market roundup. The national average price slipped 0.7% to $657,500 — a third consecutive monthly decline.
The sharper signal is on rates. With inflation holding at 3.0%, BMO Capital Markets is now projecting that the Bank of Canada’s next moves will be rate hikes, warning that mortgages are at cycle lows and that increases could throttle home sales in the coming quarters. The Bank held its policy rate at 2.25% at its September 2 decision.
What it means: For Alberta builders and developers, the window where financing math favours the buyer may be closing rather than opening. Sales and marketing messages built around today’s cycle-low mortgage rates — rate holds, lock-in deadlines, buy-before-the-turn urgency — have a natural expiry date, and the operators who use that urgency honestly this fall will convert fence-sitters the spring market may not deliver.
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